Nvidia Q1 Earnings Preview: After 13 Straight Blowout Quarters, Should Investors Worry About A Slowdown?
Semiconductor giant NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) reports first-quarter financial results Wednesday after market close. The report could move markets and create volatility for the overall U.S. market, technology sector and more given the size of the company and its weighting in certain indexes.
Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the report and the key items to watch.
Nvidia Q1 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect Nvidia to report first-quarter revenue of $79.08 billion, up from $44.06 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 14 straight quarters.
Analysts expect Nvidia to report first-quarter earnings per share of $1.76, up from 96 cents per share in last year's first quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in 13 straight quarters.
What Experts Are Saying
Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods doesn't mince words at the importance of Nvidia's earnings report.
"The biggest company in the world based on market cap as well as the poster child for all that is AI reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.
Woods highlights the number of quarters Nvidia has beaten analyst estimates, creating a high bar with expectations.
The market expert said the three things investors will be watching are commentary on CEO Jensen Huang's trip to China with President Donald Trump, data center growth and guidance.
Woods said the United States recently cleared 10 Chinese companies to buy H200 chips, but no deals have been made. This could see Nvidia having upside to its revenue and guidance with China currently not factored into guidance.
While mega cap companies have raised their CapEx spending related to AI, Woods said Nvidia's results could show the exact impact.
"Investors want confirmation that cloud and enterprise AI spending remains strong and that fears of any ‘AI spending fatigue' are not materializing."
With a history of raising guidance, Woods said there are concerns about global competition and inflation that could see estimates stay in check, an item that could create volatility for shares.
The market expert says that Nvidia stock could have upside to $290 based on technicals, the recent breakout and past history.
"The downside risk seems much more limited as this continues to be in a class all by itself."
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst CJ Muse recently reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia stock and raised the price target from $300 to $350.
Muse said that Nvidia deserves a higher multiple given its past success.
"We believe there is clear support for a vision for Y/Y growth at NVDA through 2028-2029 at a minimum," Muse said.
Muse said fears of competition have hurt Nvidia’s multiple, which is “incredibly low” at 14x calendar year 2027 estimates. The analyst’s new price target of $350 is based on 22x to 23x calendar year earnings per share estimates of $15 to $16.
The analyst expects Nvidia to report a beat and raise on May 20, along with showing strong demand in the AI cycle.
“Any real positive momentum in shares will lead to meaningful upside — our only question is when (not if).”
Here are some other recent analyst ratings on Nvidia stock and their price targets:
- HSBC: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $295 to $325
- DA Davidson: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $250 to $300
- Morgan Stanley: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $260 to $285
- Wedbush: Reiterated Outperform rating, with price target $300
- KeyBanc: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $275 to $300
Key Items to Watch
China, as mentioned by Woods, will be a key item to watch as it could factor into management commentary and guidance.
In the fourth quarter, data center revenue was up 75% year-over-year, continuing recent history of strong demand. Investors and analysts will be watching to see if the impressive growth can keep up or if this segment slows down some.
As the most valuable company in the world, Nvidia's results and guidance could move markets, especially with the possibility of new commentary and estimates for China.
Nvidia is the largest component in the S&P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY). In the ETF, Nvidia represents 8.51% of assets.
Nvidia is also the top holding in the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, at 15.08% of assets.
In the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nvidia is the 17th largest holding at 2.75% of assets. This is due to the index being price weighted and not market cap weighted.
Regardless, Nvidia is a key member of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100, three of the most well-known and most tracked market indexes.
Nvidia is also a top holding in many technology themed ETFs and semiconductor sector ETFs. These ETFs could also be volatile on the heels of Nvidia's earnings.
Nvidia Stock Price Action
Nvidia stock trades at $223.07 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $129.16 to $236.54. New all-time highs were hit for the stock last week. Shares are up 18.0% year-to-date in 2026.
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