Oil Surges 5% As Trump's Ceasefire Hopes Dim, Bitcoin Slips Below $70,000: What's Moving Markets Tuesday?
U.S. equities traded in mixed, directionless territory midday Tuesday as a fresh surge in crude oil prices stoked stagflation fears, widening the gap between energy and defensive winners on one side and technology stocks on the other.
Iran and Israel continued to trade strikes through Tuesday morning, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the UAE were edging closer to joining the conflict against Tehran, adding yet another geopolitical dimension to an already fraught situation.
The reality of the war contradicts claims made by President Donald Trump, who noted on Monday that the U.S. and Iran held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East” — a claim Iran’s officials flatly denied.
WTI crude, as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), jumped 4.9% to $92.42 per barrel midday, now up 40% since the start of the month. Brent crude gained 4.2% to $104.14.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed back to 4.39%, up approximately 4 basis points, reversing part of Monday’s decline as Iran’s denial of talks reignited uncertainty.
The 2-year yield rose to 3.91% while the 30-year touched 4.94%. With energy prices still climbing and inflation expectations ratcheting higher, traders are no longer pricing in any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 — a sharp reversal from the central bank’s own guidance last week, which still pointed to a 25-basis-point reduction this year.
Across U.S. equity markets by midday Tuesday, performance was decidedly uneven. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1% to 6,590, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4% to 46,402, propped up by defensive heavyweights, with Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) up 2.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.1% to 24,172. The Russell 2000 outperformed the large-cap universe, gaining 0.8% to 2,511.
Within Magnificent Seven stocks, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) dropped 2.4%. lost 2.4%, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) fell 1%, and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) dropped over 2%, all weighed by rising real rates and growing concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure in a high-energy-cost environment.
In crypto markets, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell 1.9% to below $70,000, weighed down by the worsening risk sentiment in tech.
On the economic data front, the flash S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in March, beating expectations of 51.3 and up from 51.6 in February, as firms stockpiled ahead of fears of supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict.
However, the Services PMI fell to an 11-month low of 51.1, and the Composite PMI dipped to 51.4, signaling a broader softening in business activity.
Tuesday’s Performance In Major US Indices
| Index | Last | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,590.30 | +0.1% |
| Dow Jones | 46,402.38 | +0.4% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,172.41 | -0.1% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,511.28 | +0.8% |
According to the Benzinga Pro platform:
- The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) gained 0.1%,
- The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA) rose 0.4%,
- The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) slid 0.1%,
- The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) climbed 0.8%.
Energy Leads, Software Names Hammered
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) was the clear standout sector Tuesday, gaining nearly 3% as surging crude prices lifted upstream and services names in lockstep with WTI and Brent.
The State Street SPDR Oil & Gas E&P ETF (NYSE:XOP) surged 4.2%, the strongest industry-level move of the session, while the VanEck Oil Services ETF (NYSE:OIH) climbed 2.8% as drilling and services firms gained on expectations of sustained elevated prices.
The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) also advanced approximately 2%, with Metals & Mining ETF (NYSE:XME) adding 2.8%.
On the other end of the ledger, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) traded near flat but with a negative bias, dragged lower by the broad software selloff.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) dropped 3.8%, the worst performing industry ETF of the session.
Salesforce Inc. (NYSE:CRM) slid more than 5%. Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) were down by about 4%.
The private credit sector remained under scrutiny. Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE:APO) fell 1.5% and Ares Management Corp. (NYSE:ARES) slipped 0.4% after both became the latest asset managers to cap redemptions on their main private credit funds.
Among notable individual movers, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:JEF) surged roughly 5% on reports that Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is exploring an acquisition of the investment bank.
Tuesday’s Russell 1000 Top Gainers
| Name | % change |
|---|---|
| Shift4 Payments Inc. (NYSE:FOUR) | +22.6% |
| Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) | +9.6% |
| Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) | +8.7% |
| FMC Corporation (NYSE:FMC) | +8.5% |
| Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) | +7.5% |
- Shift4 Payments surged 22.6% after completing its acquisition of Worldline’s North American operations, while CEO Jared Isaacman’s recent open-market share purchases near multi-year lows added a confidence signal.
- Corning Incorporated jumped 9.6% after unveiling an AI-focused optical suite at the OFC 2026 conference — including multicore fiber and co-packaged optics — alongside Bank of America lifting its price target to $144 and citing a $10.3 billion scale-out revenue opportunity by 2030.
- Lumentum Holdings Inc. rallied 8.7% on its inclusion in the S&P 500, effective Monday, drawing index-fund inflows.
- FMC Corporation gained 8.5% after its CEO confirmed at the BofA Global Agriculture and Materials Conference that the agrochemical company has hired Goldman Sachs and Bank of America to explore strategic alternatives, including a potential sale.
- Olin Corporation rose 7.5% after Citigroup raised its price target on the chlor-alkali producer, pointing to global supply disruptions that structurally favor North American manufacturers.
Tuesday’s Russell 1000 Top Losers
| Name | % change |
|---|---|
| Concentrix Corp. (NASDAQ:CNCX) | -23.0% |
| Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE:CRCL) | -18.9% |
| Axon Enterprise Inc. (NASDAQ:AXON) | -10.1% |
| The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) | -10.0% |
| UiPath Inc. (NYSE:PATH) | -8.9% |
- Concentrix Corp. cratered 23% after reporting Q1 2026 results this morning: revenue met expectations at $2.5 billion (+5.4% year-over-year), but non-GAAP EPS of $2.61 missed estimates by 1.3% and operating margin contracted 2.4 percentage points. Q2 revenue guidance of $2.47 billion also fell 0.6% below consensus.
- Circle Internet Group Inc. fell 18.9% on profit-taking after its roughly 60% year-to-date surge, compounded by reports that ARK Invest liquidated nearly $6 million in shares and growing investor concern that USDC interest income has peaked ahead of potential Fed rate cuts. Axon Enterprise dropped alongside the broader software selloff; Bank of America lowered its price target on the stock to $700 from $805 while maintaining a Buy rating.
- The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. sank 10% after confirming it is in preliminary talks to acquire Spanish beauty group Puig Brands in a potential $40 billion cash-and-stock deal, raising concerns about dilution and integration risk.
- UiPath Inc. remained under pressure in the software selloff, still digesting its March 12 earnings report in which slower forward growth guidance overshadowed the company’s first full-year GAAP profit.
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