U.S. stock futures rose on Monday following Friday’s lower close. Futures of the major benchmark indices were higher.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump urged nations reliant on the Strait of Hormuz to deploy military assets, specifically minesweepers, to secure the route, warning NATO allies of consequences for failing to assist.
Simultaneously, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed rumors of his death in a video on X, jokingly appearing at a café to reassure the Israeli public.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.26%, and the two-year bond was at 3.70%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 99.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged in March.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.27% |
| S&P 500 | 0.46% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.50% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.51% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were higher in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.40% at $664.91, while the QQQ advanced 0.44% to $596.36.
Information technology, materials, and communication services led Friday’s market decline, though consumer staples and utilities closed higher, as the Nasdaq dropped 200 points while investors weighed weak GDP revisions against high inflation and Iranian war oil shocks.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Dow Jones | -0.26% | 46,558.47 |
| S&P 500 | -0.61% | 6,632.19 |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.93% | 22,105.36 |
| Russell 2000 | -0.36% | 2,480.05 |
Mohamed El-Erian paints a sobering picture of a U.S. economy caught between “persistent inflation” and a sharp growth slowdown. With fourth-quarter GDP revised downward to 0.7%, he notes that the American economy was losing steam even before the recent escalation of the war in the Middle East.
This conflict has shifted from a short-term disruption to a source of “structural damage” that threatens systemic financial instability.
Regarding the stock market, El-Erian highlights the breakdown of traditional diversification. As both stocks and bonds lost ground last week, he observed that “investors struggled to find safety,” with markets increasingly vulnerable to “market indigestion.”
The persistence of sticky inflation at 3.1%—well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target—further complicates the outlook.
El-Erian warns that the targeting of energy infrastructure marks a “new, more dangerous phase” for global markets. He cautions that without a diplomatic breakthrough, the fallout will extend beyond high energy prices to include “broader inflationary pressures, lower growth, higher unemployment, and a greater risk of systemic financial instability.”
For investors, the immediate future remains locked on the war's duration and its capacity to fundamentally “complicate the policy outlook” for the Fed.
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on this week.
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 2.21% to hover around $98.98 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.51% to hover around $4,993.80 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.02% lower at the 100.2550 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin was trading 2.37% higher at $73,270.99 per coin, as per the last 24 hours.
Asian markets closed mixed on Monday, as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, and South Korea's Kospi indices rose. On the other hand, India’s Nifty 50, Australia's ASX 200, and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices fell. European markets were mostly lower in early trade.
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