Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, S&P 500 Futures Drop As Trump Threatens Iran To 'Watch What Happens'—Adobe, Mosaic, Zumiez In Focus

U.S. stock futures fell on Friday following Thursday’s lower close. Futures of the major benchmark indices were down.

Investors await the delayed January personal consumption expenditure data today, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post, warned Iran, saying, “Watch what happens to these deranged sc*mbags today,” after the Iran’s Supreme Leader warned the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed on Thursday, while the IRGC signaled potential retaliation against Israel’s Leviathan and Karish gas fields.

These threats to regional energy infrastructure coincide with the confirmed crash of a U.S. KC-135 refueling plane in Iraq and reports of explosions in Dubai following a drone interception.

The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.28%, and the two-year bond was at 3.76%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 99.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged in March.

Index	Performance (+/-)
Dow Jones	-0.43%
S&P 500	-0.41%
Nasdaq 100	-0.53%
Russell 2000	-0.70%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were lower in premarket on Friday. The SPY was down 0.30% at $664.05, while the QQQ declined 0.38% to $595.00.

Stocks In Focus

Adobe

• Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) dropped 9.02% in premarket on Friday despite reporting upbeat financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 after the market closed on Thursday. However, CEO Shantanu Narayen decided to transition from his CEO role after a successor had been appointed.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that ADBE maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a moderate quality score.

Mosaic, CF Industries, Nutrien

• Fertilizer stocks Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS) rose 3.48%, CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CF) was up 2.53%, and Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) advanced 2.45% amid concern that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz will limit exports from key Middle East producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE, impacting fertilizer supply and prices worldwide.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MOS maintains a weaker price trend over the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term, with a solid quality score.

PAR Technology

• PAR Technology Corp. (NYSE:PAR) plunged 22.08% after it announced the pricing of a private offering of $250 million in 4.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that PAR maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms.

Ulta Beauty

• Ulta Beauty Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) tumbled 10.81% despite posting better-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter. However, it expects fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS of $28.05 to $28.55, versus the $28.38 analyst estimate.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that ULTA maintains a weak price trend over the short term, but a strong trend in the medium and long terms, with a moderate value score.

Zumiez

• Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) fell 8.07% regardless of reporting upbeat earnings for the fourth quarter on Thursday. But the company said it sees a first-quarter GAAP loss of 87 cents to 77 cents per share, versus market estimates of a loss of 75 cents per share.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that ZUMZ maintains a weaker price trend over the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term, with a moderate quality score.

Cues From Last Session

Energy and utilities closed higher on Thursday, while industrial, consumer discretionary, health care, and IT sectors tumbled, dragging the broader indices down.

Index	Performance (+/-)	Value
Dow Jones	-1.56%	46.677,85
S&P 500	-1.52%	6.672,62
Nasdaq Composite	-1.78%	22.311,98
Russell 2000	-2.12%	2.488,99

Insights From Analysts

Senior Global Market Strategist Scott Wren maintains a cautiously optimistic view of the U.S. economy despite current “financial-market turmoil.”

While acknowledging that “there will likely be some short-term inflation effects,” particularly through rising gas and grocery prices, Wren believes a recession is unlikely.

He attributes this resilience to a structural shift: the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil and possesses a “much more service oriented” economy compared to the energy-intensive periods of past Gulf Wars.

Regarding the stock market, Wren identifies a lack of clarity driven by “oil prices on a roller-coaster ride.” Consequently, he recommends a strategic shift away from overextended energy assets. He suggests investors bring Energy sector and commodity allocations back to neutral, rotating those funds into U.S. Large Cap and Mid Cap Equities.

Within these classes, he identifies Financials as the “most favored” due to recent underperformance, while also showing a preference for Industrials and Utilities.

Essentially, Wren views the current volatility as a prompt to rebalance toward broader equity sectors while the economy weathers temporary energy disruptions.

Upcoming Economic Data

Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Friday.

• The first revision of the fourth quarter GDP number, January’s personal income and personal spending data, and January’s delayed headline and core PCE reports (including year-over-year figures) will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• January’s job openings data and March’s preliminary consumer sentiment report will both be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.

Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.77% to hover around $97.42 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.02% to hover around $5,068.80 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.52% higher at the 100.2550 level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 2.24% higher at $100.2550 per coin, as per the last 24 hours.

Asian markets closed lower on Friday, as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, India’s Nifty 50, Australia's ASX 200, China’s CSI 300, Japan's Nikkei 225, and South Korea's Kospi indices fell. European markets were also lower in early trade.

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