Barchart's Jim Wyckoff Says Gold Is A Crowded Trade—Here's What Smart Money's Buying

Gold is trading around $5,185 per ounce, down about 1% on the day, as veteran commodities analyst Jim Wyckoff of Barchart laid out a contrarian case that the precious metal’s bull run may be running out of gas.

Iran War Can’t Move The Needle

In a column published on Wednesday, Wyckoff pointed out that the war in Iran has failed to significantly push gold higher. He called it arguably the biggest geopolitical event in decades.

When a market cannot rally on fresh bullish news, he argued, the bulls are exhausted.

Wyckoff called gold a “crowded trade” and said the smart money has likely taken profits and moved on.

Smart Money Is Rotating Into Grains

Wyckoff said speculator and hedge fund money appears to be rotating into grain markets. Corn, soybeans and wheat futures have all trended higher since January, and unlike gold, grain prices remain well below their record highs.

In an environment of inflation worries and commodity hoarding by industrialized countries, he argued grains look attractive to both speculative traders and long-term investors seeking more upside runway.

Polymarket Traders Are Not Bearish Gold

Prediction market traders are not on board with the bearish thesis.

Polymarket’s June 2026 gold contract assigns a 74% probability to gold hitting $5,500 or higher and a 42% chance of reaching $6,000.

Looking further out, Polymarket traders think there is a 64% chance gold reaches $6,000.

But here is where Wyckoff’s grains thesis gets a boost.

Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire market, with $19.7 million in volume, gives just 30% odds on a ceasefire by March 31 and 52% by April 30. If bettors are right that this war drags on, grain bulls may have the stronger hand.

Iran Can’t Move Gold, But It’s Moving Grains

The same war Wyckoff says cannot move gold is already sending fertilizer prices sharply higher right before U.S. spring planting. Urea at New Orleans has surged more than 30% since the conflict began, according to Reuters. Nearly a third of globally traded urea moves through the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts say farmers may cut back on corn, which requires high rates of nitrogen fertilizer, and shift acres toward soybeans. Fewer corn acres likely means tighter supply and higher grain prices later this year.

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) is up 8% today. Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) is up 43% over the past year. Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) has lagged but may catch up as phosphate supply tightens.

For pure grain exposure, Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE:CORN) and Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSE:WEAT) track the underlying futures.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) was down about 1% Wednesday.

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