EXCLUSIVE: Fertilizer Stocks Are the Market's Hottest Trade. The War In Iran Explains Why.

Shares of CF Industries (NYSE:CF), Nutrien (NYSE:NTR), and Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) have surged between 5% and 35% since January, outpacing the benchmark S&P 500 Index, as the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran threw the world’s most critical fertilizer supply chain into disarray.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade passes, sits at the center of the crisis. And with the Northern Hemisphere spring planting window opening now, analysts say the consequences could extend well beyond trading floors.

“Fertilizer markets have already reacted quickly, with prices rising roughly 30% in less than two weeks since the conflict began,” Hunter Swisher, CEO of agricultural technology company Phospholutions, told Benzinga. “That kind of move reflects how interconnected the fertilizer system is with global energy production, raw material inputs, and shipping routes.”

A Chokepoint For More Than Oil

Gulf nations account for approximately 30% of globally traded urea, the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, and about 20% of ammonia, the feedstock from which urea is derived. The conflict has placed both supply lines and the natural gas feedstocks that underpin them under direct threat.

“Volatility in natural gas prices is translated into urea via ammonia, as we have already seen. Both large fertilizer importers and food-importing regions are vulnerable to fertilizer costs and availability,” Dr. Maksim Sonin, a Stanford-affiliated energy expert, told Benzinga.

The disruption is not limited to nitrogen. Nearly 50% of global sulfur exports also pass through the strait, according to the Fertilizer Institute. Sulfur is a key input for phosphoric acid — the building block of phosphate fertilizers. “When disruptions occur in that region, it doesn’t just affect one product — it creates ripple effects across the entire fertilizer supply chain,” Swisher added.

Price Action: Stocks And Commodities React

Urea prices at the key New Orleans import hub have jumped from about $475 per metric ton before the conflict to as high as $683 — a move of nearly 44% at the peak. Equity markets have moved sharply in response. Shares in CF Industries, the largest U.S. ammonia producer and a pure-play nitrogen company, are up about 37% since January as the standout performer in the sector. Nutrien has gained around 20% over the same period, while Mosaic is up roughly 6%.

Broader commodity markets have also been volatile, with wheat futures approaching multi-year highs and crude oil briefly topping $100 a barrel.

Spring Planting At Risk

The timing of the disruption is what makes it particularly acute. About 50% of the nitrogen applied to U.S. corn is spread in the spring. A vessel loading in the Persian Gulf today takes roughly 30 days to reach U.S. shores, and another three to four weeks to reach interior farm markets. This means product stranded now may simply not arrive before planting decisions are locked in.

“If those shipments are blocked during the spring planting season, it could affect fertilizer availability in markets such as India and Bangladesh, raising the risk of lower crop yields across South Asia and parts of Latin America and potentially feeding food price inflation into the global cost base in the second half of 2026,” David Fairnie, a supply chain security expert, told Benzinga.

QatarEnergy has been forced to halt production at the world’s largest single-site urea plant, while Indian manufacturers have cut output and Bangladesh has curtailed operations at several domestic fertilizer facilities as Gulf feedstock flows have tightened.

Worse Than 2022?

The Russia-Ukraine war triggered a global grain shock in 2022, but analysts say this situation is structurally different and potentially more severe.

“Instead of disrupting the grain supply directly, fertilizer disruptions affect the system upstream by making grain more expensive to produce and potentially reducing global output,” Swisher said.

European producers, already hobbled by elevated gas prices since Russia’s 2022 invasion, have limited spare capacity to fill the gap. Non-Gulf suppliers could theoretically ramp up, but that takes time, which the spring planting calendar does not allow.

What Could Ease The Crunch

“Faster restoration of the usual route would be best. If that is not possible in the short to mid run, then increased production by capable non-Gulf suppliers, along with easing of export restrictions and re-routing, could help,” Sonin said.

The Trump administration has pledged naval escorts for fuel tankers through the Strait, with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) calling for those protections to be extended explicitly to fertilizer shipments.

“These supply chain shocks are expected to drive already record-high input prices even higher at a time when farm margins are already extremely tight, and many farmers are underwater,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall.

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