Hegseth's Anthropic Ultimatum Expires Today: Here's Why Palantir, Microsoft, Google Are Watching The Deadline
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has until 5:01 p.m today to grant the military unrestricted access to Claude or face being designated a “supply chain risk.”
“Threats do not change our position: we cannot in good conscience accede to their request,” Amodei wrote Thursday, hours after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s spokesman posted the deadline on X.
Under Secretary of War Emil Michael responded on X by calling Amodei “a liar” who “has a God-complex” and “wants nothing more than to try to personally control the US Military and is ok putting our nation’s safety at risk.”
The Polymarket contract asking “Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?” spiked to 49% last night after the fierce rhetoric, but has since collapsed to 25%, with over $345,000 in volume.
Palantir Is In The Crossfire
Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) runs Claude on classified networks through its Maven Smart System. The model was reportedly used during the January operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, integrated through Palantir’s infrastructure.
If Hegseth follows through, the Pentagon could designate Anthropic a “supply chain risk,” a label normally reserved for foreign adversaries like Huawei.
That would require every Pentagon contractor, including Palantir, to certify it doesn’t use Anthropic products.
Gregory Allen at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told Bloomberg that designation “could make Anthropic a nonstarter for a whole huge segment of the American economy.”
Palintir’s Maven Smart System is model-agnostic; if Claude gets pulled, Palantir swaps in a replacement and keeps the contract.
The episode could actually strengthen Palantir’s position by proving the Pentagon can’t operate without its platform.
UBS upgraded Palantir to Buy with a $180 target on Thursday. The stock is around $135, down almost 20% this year.
Microsoft And Google Are Next In Line
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) could be beneficiaries if Hegseth follows through on his threats.
Both companies hold contracts worth up to $200 million each to expand AI capabilities across the Department of War.
Microsoft-backed OpenAI dropped its military use ban in early 2024 and has been pursuing classified network access.
Google once walked away from a Pentagon AI contract after employee protests in 2018. It has since reversed course and is now competing for defense work.
But over 100 Google employees signed a letter Thursday demanding the same “red lines” Anthropic is fighting for.
OpenAI staff published a similar separate letter titled “We Will Not Be Divided.”
Elon Musk’s xAI signed a deal in December to bring Grok into classified settings, though Pentagon officials have acknowledged it is not as advanced as Claude.
Why Bettors Think It’s A Bluff
The move from 49% to 25% suggests bettors expect a resolution: whether Anthropic softens its terms, the Pentagon backs down, or both sides reach a quiet compromise before the deadline.
This is a big year for Anthropic; Polymarket assigns it a 90% probability of attaining a $500 billion valuation, and there is persistent talk of a 2026 IPO.
But Anthropic is threading a needle: push back too hard and it risks losing government revenue. Cave too quickly and it risks losing the engineers who chose Anthropic over Google and OpenAI precisely because of its safety stance.
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