Marco Rubio Says Iran Has Weapons 'Solely Designed To Attack America,' But What Do Prediction Markets Say?
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran possesses conventional weapons “solely designed to attack America and attack Americans if they so choose to do so.”
He warned Tehran is pursuing intercontinental ballistic missiles and called its refusal to discuss the missile program a “big problem.”
Vice President JD Vance went further: “You can’t let the craziest and worst regime in the world have nuclear weapons.”
Response from Tehran
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei spoke on Monday with language that left zero room for interpretation: “An act of aggression would be regarded as an act of aggression. Period. Any state would react ferociously.”
Yet on Tuesday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck a different tone, saying a deal was “within reach” if “diplomacy is given priority.”
The mixed messaging captures the bind Tehran is in: threatening retaliation while signaling it would rather negotiate.
A third round of talks opened Thursday in Geneva.
What Are Prediction Markets Saying?
Polymarket’s “US strikes Iran by…?” market has now crossed $430 million in total volume, making it one of the largest current markets on Polymarket.
Near-term odds remain moderate: 10% by end of February.
But by March 31, the odds of a strike have moved from 30% to 55% in a week, as the talks have not led to a cooling of tempers.
The odds of a strike this year have held roughly steady, at 70%.
On the diplomacy side, a US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31 is priced at just 30%. A deal before 2027 is a coin flip at 50%.
A separate contract pricing an Iranian strike on U.S. military assets by March 31 sits at 30%.
Stocks To Watch
RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) supplied the key weapons used in the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Boeing built the 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs that collapsed the Fordow enrichment facility, while RTX’s Tomahawk cruise missiles hit Isfahan.
A renewed military campaign would likely mean fresh orders for both.
RTX carries a $251 billion backlog and its stock has gained over 38% in the past year.
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR), whose Pentagon analytics platforms underpin U.S. targeting and intelligence operations in the Gulf, tends to catch a bid every time the military footprint expands.
Iran sits astride the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which 13 million barrels per day of crude transit.
Brent crude recently hit a six-month high near $71.70, with Goldman Sachs estimating a $6-per-barrel geopolitical risk premium already baked in.
Polymarket prices a 35% chance Iran closes the strait by year-end.
Iran has tripled its crude loading pace at Kharg Island in recent weeks, suggesting Tehran may be front-running its own supply disruption. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) benefit from sustained elevated prices, though any deal restoring Iranian supply could reverse that trade.
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