Netflix Stock Surges As Trump Steps Aside On Warner Bros. Discovery Deal
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares are up on Thursday after President Donald Trump said in an NBC News interview that he will not intervene in the proposed Netflix–Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) deal, reversing earlier comments and leaving the politically sensitive merger to federal antitrust regulators.
Here’s what investors need to know.
- Netflix stock is trading near recent lows. What’s next for NFLX stock?
Trump Steps Back From Netflix–Warner Bros. Discovery Merger
President Trump said in an NBC interview Thursday he will not intervene in the blockbuster $82.7 billion merger between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery.
This decision follows a shift from his previous stance, where he suggested he would be involved due to market concentration concerns, now leaving it to career regulators to handle the merger’s complexities.
The deal has sparked intense competition, with Warner Bros. Discovery’s board backing Netflix’s all-cash offer of $27.75 per share, while Paramount Skydance Corp (NASDAQ:PSKY) has launched a hostile $108.7 billion takeover attempt.
Analysts have noted that a combined entity could control over 30% of the U.S. streaming market, raising regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust challenges.
Trump Neutrality Lowers Regulatory Risk for Netflix–WBD Deal
For markets, Trump's on-air pledge to stay neutral instantly reduces the perception of political and regulatory risk around a Netflix–WBD tie-up.
Investors had to discount the deal for the possibility that the White House might pressure DOJ to block it, impose harsh conditions or give informal preference to a Trump-aligned Paramount bid despite Warner Bros. Discovery's board already favoring Netflix.
With the president explicitly saying he "shouldn't be involved," the path to approval looks cleaner, the odds of the Netflix transaction closing rise, and the chance of a messy bidding or regulatory war falls.
A higher probability that Netflix secures HBO/Warner film assets, gains scale, removes a major competitor, and locks in powerful content synergies is exactly the kind of de-risking that can push NFLX shares higher.
Netflix Near Oversold Levels As Bearish Trend Persists
Netflix is currently trading 6.9% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 13.1% below its 50-day SMA, indicating a bearish trend. Over the past 12 months, shares have decreased by 19.09%, and they are currently positioned closer to their 52-week lows than highs, signaling ongoing challenges for the stock.
The RSI is at 21.93, which is considered oversold territory, indicating potential for a rebound if buying interest increases. Meanwhile, the MACD is below its signal line, reinforcing bearish sentiment around the stock.
The combination of oversold RSI and bearish MACD suggests mixed momentum, indicating that while the stock is oversold, there is still significant selling pressure.
- Key Resistance: $97.50
- Key Support: $82.00
Netflix’s Business Model
Netflix’s relatively simple business model involves only one business, its streaming service. It has the television entertainment subscriber base in both the United States and the collective international market, with more than 300 million subscribers globally.
The firm has traditionally avoided a regular slate of live programming or sports content, instead focusing on on-demand access to episodic television, movies and documentaries.
The recent merger discussions highlight its significant position in the market and the competitive pressures it faces as it seeks to maintain and grow its subscriber base.
Navigating Netflix’s Premium Valuation
Investors are looking ahead to the next earnings report on April 16.
- EPS Estimate: 76 cents (Up from 66 cents YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $12.17 billion (Up from $10.54 billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E of 31.7x (Indicates premium valuation)
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $119.15. Recent analyst moves include:
- Freedom Capital Markets: Upgraded to Buy (Lowers Target to $104.00) (Jan. 27)
- Argus Research: Buy (Lowers Target to $110.00) (Jan. 22)
- Oppenheimer: Outperform (Lowers Target to $125.00) (Jan. 21)
Valuation Insight: While the stock trades at a premium P/E multiple, the strong consensus and rising estimates suggest analysts view the growth prospects as justification for the 47% upside to analyst targets.
Benzinga Edge Rankings
Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for NetFlix, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:
- Value: Weak (Score: 15.46) — Trading at a steep premium relative to peers.
- Quality: Strong (Score: 76.23) — Balance sheet remains healthy.
- Momentum: Weak (Score: 7.95) — Stock is underperforming the broader market.
The Verdict: Netflix’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a classic ‘High-Flyer’ setup. While the Quality score indicates a solid balance sheet, the low Value and Momentum scores suggest that the stock is currently under pressure and may face challenges in the near term.
Top ETF Exposure
- State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLC): 5.32% Weight
- The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLC): 5.71% Weight
- First Trust DJ Internet Index Fund (NYSE:FDN): 9.31% Weight
Significance: Because NFLX carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.
NFLX Shares Edge Higher
NFLX Price Action: Netflix shares were up 2.18% at $81.91 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The stock has bounced off support near $80 but remains well below key moving averages, signaling continued technical weakness despite a short-term stabilization.
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