Michael Saylor Says Bitcoin Makes MSTR 'Interesting,' But Polymarket Aren't So Sure
Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) executive chairman Michael Saylor says Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) makes the stock “interesting,” but Polymarket traders bet 76% the company gets booted from MSCI by March 31.
Options Activity Dwarfs Mega-Cap Peers
Saylor on Frida pointed to MSTR’s options interest-to-market cap ratio, which now sits at 86.2%—far exceeding derivatives exposure at Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) at 22%, Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) at 10.4%, and Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) at 7.2%.
Tech giants like Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) cluster much lower around 3-4%, highlighting how extreme MSTR’s derivatives positioning is relative to its market size.
A large Jan. 2 options expiry could heighten short-term volatility, though MSTR’s returns over the past year have lagged behind its mega-cap peers despite the elevated options activity.
Polymarket Sees Structural Pressure Building
Polymarket traders are positioning for stress around Strategy’s equity narrative as 2026 approaches.
The 76% probability of MSCI index removal by March 31 reflects sustained concern over classification and index eligibility rather than a fleeting headline risk.
At the same time, confidence in another aggressive Bitcoin disclosure has softened.
The odds that MicroStrategy announces holdings above 680,000 BTC by Jan. 31 sit at 64%, down from recent highs.
Together, the pricing suggests traders expect structural pressure on the stock to materialize sooner than any near-term upside catalyst tied to fresh Bitcoin accumulation.
Chart Shows $148 Is Last Line Of Defense
MSTR Price Action By TradingView
MSTR is up 3.70% today, but remains in a clear downtrend after the 66% decline from late July’s peak near $460.
The 20 EMA at $167.67 represents the nearest overhead resistance, followed by the 50 EMA at $202.78.
The Supertrend indicator at $181.47 has flipped bearish, reinforcing the current downtrend.
The descending trendline from the November peak continues to cap upside attempts.
Recent price action shows consolidation in the $150-$160 range with diminishing volatility, which could precede a directional move.
The overall technical structure remains negative until the stock can reclaim key moving averages.
Key Levels To Watch
- Immediate support: $148-$150 (recent lows)
- Key resistance: $167-$170 (20 EMA), $180-$185 (Supertrend + psychological level)
- Major resistance: $200+ (50 EMA zone)
A break below $148 opens the door to further downside with no clear support until $120-$130.
Reclaiming $180 and holding it as support would be the first sign of a trend reversal.
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