U.S. stock futures rose on Monday after Friday’s higher close. Futures of major benchmark indices advanced.
In the last week, the S&P 500 dropped 0.37%, whereas the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones slipped 0.10% and 0.95%, respectively.
Trading will be suspended on Thursday following an abbreviated session on Wednesday, with equity markets closing at 1:00 p.m. EST and bond markets at 2:00 p.m. EST. Despite the shortened schedule, investors have several economic indicators to digest, highlighted by the initial figures for third-quarter GDP.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.16%, and the two-year bond was at 3.49%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing an 80.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.10% |
| S&P 500 | 0.36% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.56% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.38% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.33% at $682.81, while the QQQ advanced 0.41% to $619.60, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Information technology, industrials, and health care stocks led the S&P 500's advance on Friday, while consumer staples and utilities defied the trend to close lower.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1.31% | 23,307.62 |
| S&P 500 | 0.88% | 6,834.50 |
| Dow Jones | 0.38% | 48,134.89 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.86% | 2,529.42 |
In his Substack post, Mohamed El-Erian forecasts a precarious economic path defined by an “ambiguous data landscape” and significant policy fragmentation.
Looking ahead to 2026, he sees the U.S. economy locked in a “tense tug-of-war” between three scenarios: a “Goldilocks-lite” baseline, a productivity-fueled upside driven by AI, and a volatile downside risk where employment potentially decouples from GDP.
In the immediate term, El-Erian warns that market stability hinges on “high-stakes geopolitics in the context of thin market liquidity.”
He specifically points to the intensifying U.S. blockade of Venezuela as a potential flashpoint that could disrupt the traditionally quiet holiday period.
He further highlights a “widening divergence among the world's major central banks” as a critical theme.
While the Bank of England cuts rates and the Bank of Japan hikes to 30-year highs, the U.S. outlook remains clouded by data quality issues following the recent government shutdown.
Ultimately, El-Erian expects investors will have to navigate this volatility alongside a U.S. administration aggressively focused on “lowering the cost of living.”
See Also: How to Trade Futures
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on this week;
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.99% to hover around $57.08 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 1.73% to hover around $4,413.65 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $4,420.35 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.08% lower at the 98.5240 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 0.84% higher at $89,659.52 per coin.
Asian markets closed higher on Monday, as India’s NIFTY 50 and Australia's ASX 200, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, South Korea's Kospi, and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices rose. European markets were mixed in early trade.
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