Flight Cuts, Rising Fares: What's Behind America's Costliest Week To Fly This Year
With millions of Americans booking last-minute Thanksgiving getaways, domestic airfares surged to their highest levels of 2025.
A sudden contraction in airline capacity, government-imposed flight reductions and Spirit Airlines' route pullbacks during its bankruptcy restructuring upped prices.
According to Goldman Sachs economist Catherine O’Brien, U.S. domestic airfares for travel next week are up 22% on average across 20 major routes—marking the strongest fare performance of the year.
That’s a steep climb from 14% two weeks ago, O’Brien wrote in her research note, which was shared Friday.
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Which Routes Are Driving The Surge In Airfares?
The sharpest airfare hikes are heavily concentrated in markets where either capacity has been slashed or budget carriers like Spirit Airlines have pulled back.
According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs as of November 5, one of the most dramatic examples is the Atlanta-to-Las Vegas corridor, where fares soared 502% year-over-year on a four-week moving average. Spirit Airlines, previously a major player on that route, recently cut its weekly flights by half.
Chicago-to-San Francisco is another standout, with prices up 95% this week and 56% on a four-week basis, signaling both reduced supply and rising demand.
“Three markets – LAX-ORD, ATL-LAX, and ATL-LAS – have seen notable declines in Spirit’s capacity of late, which has corresponded with an improvement in the lowest, one-way fares,” O’Brien said.
In the LAX-ORD route, for instance, Spirit exited entirely from Oct. 6 to Oct. 20. During that stretch, fares skyrocketed more than 120% year-over-year. Even after re-entering the route in early November, average prices remained elevated, climbing 96% and 66% in the last two weeks.
Los Angeles-to-Maui fares rose 61% this week, while Honolulu-to-Los Angeles climbed 26% on the week and 39% on average—both pointing to increased holiday-season pressure on leisure travel corridors.
Not all markets are inflating, however. Routes involving New York's JFK Airport were notably weak. JFK-to-Los Angeles fares dropped 44% year-over-year this week and are down 33% on a four-week average.
JFK-to-Las Vegas is also down 30% this week, and JFK-to-San Francisco ticked up just 13%. These declines may reflect steady competition from full-service carriers or sustained capacity despite broader market tightening.
Other notable laggards include Dallas-to-Los Angeles, down 35% this week, and Atlanta-to-Los Angeles, down 34%.
These declines, the report shows, may reflect stronger competition from full-service airlines or minimal exposure to FAA-related flight cuts. But even with a few weak spots, the group average confirms a clear trend: airfares are surging across most of the country, especially in markets losing low-cost competition.
FAA Flight Cuts Add More Pressure
On top of Spirit's retreat, the Federal Aviation Administration ordered U.S. airlines to cut domestic flights by 10% at 40 high-volume airports, effective Friday, November 7.
The cuts come amid ongoing air traffic control staffing issues, exacerbated by the continuing federal government shutdown.
The impact on airline capacity is material. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the 10% reduction continues through the end of the fourth quarter, total scheduled domestic capacity growth for the quarter—initially projected at 2.2% year-over-year—would flip into a 2.3% decline.
Each week under the FAA order is expected to shave roughly 60 basis points off fourth-quarter capacity, the report said.
Airlines Most Exposed To Airport Reductions
Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL), Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL) and JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ:JBLU) each have over 80% of their domestic capacity tied to the affected hubs.
The combination of capacity constraints, fewer budget options and rising demand ahead of the holiday season means flyers should brace for elevated costs through year-end.
While some markets may normalize once Spirit stabilizes and the FAA order lifts, the near-term trend points to continued fare pressure.
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